Discovery is a useful tool for Product Managers to get pointed in the right direction. But it only extends so far. It is not a neatly detailed map that charts the terrain and reveals every step you should make.
That’s where most people get it wrong. Try as you might, discovery cannot be used to eliminate all uncertainty. Once you’ve used it to establish a deeper understanding of the problem, your users, and test high-level concepts, you must act.
And when you do act, speed and correctness matter. The PM who gets it right in two iterations rather than six will run laps around the field, drive faster results, and unlock months of resourcing to focus on the next meaningful problem.
The wasteland of mediocre PMs is littered with glorified project managers who build exclusively to customer requests, as well as those at the opposite end of the spectrum who have jumped off the deep end with the cult of discovery. The latter making up those who are content with never shipping anything of substance, instead creating the illusion of progress through a perpetual cycle of prototypes, personas, user testing, and exhaustive analysis. In other words, those better at talking than doing.
Discovery, within reason, remains a critical aspect of building exceptional products. It’s a tool to validate your largest and riskiest assumptions. To help get you started, Teresa Torres offers a helpful framework in her book Continuous Discovery Habits that features four quadrants where you map assumptions based on supporting evidence and level of importance. This provides a clear visualization of which assumptions to prioritize during discovery.
But what we’ve overlooked is that intuition in product is just as valuable.
PMs who are able to make better decisions, faster, win. PMs who fumble through months of discovery and analysis before moving, will lose. Just as those who only know how to build by taking orders from customers or stakeholders without any sort of research and refinement will also lose. There exists a golden mean.
As it relates to intuition in product, this can take as many forms as the discipline of product itself. Once you’ve identified a meaningful objective to pursue, selected a direction, and validated or invalidated your riskiest assumptions, there are still hundreds of variations in how you might get to your desired end state. If you’re able to successfully anticipate second-order consequences, what’s going to drive the bulk of the value (80/20), how it advances the vision, and where your product has the highest likelihood of going off the rails, you’ll be able to deliver results in weeks instead of months, or months instead of years.
At the heart of strong intuition is correctness and speed. In product, this will give a better idea of where to start, which iterations are worth pursuing, how to launch, when to scrap, and how to scale.
The same logic applies to bigger swings and moonshots. These have an inherently higher likelihood of failure. PMs with strong intuition might only have a success rate of 25%. But a 25% success rate is worth exponentially more than 10% success rate. And as it relates to the 75% they miss on, they don’t drag out failures over multiple years, blinded by sunk costs in the name of discovery.
The next obvious question becomes how do you hone intuition? Mainly through reflection, reading across disciplines, and experience. Get your reps in, ship often, and outlearn everyone around you. The best PMs codify each lesson the first time around—rather than having to relearn it dozens of times—and in doing so, cement that as intuition.
PMs with strong intuition focus on building a latticework of mental models. Product demands a multidisciplinary approach. The more flexible and wide-ranging your mental models, the stronger your decision-making and the less rigid your thinking. In product, this allows you to evaluate things from multiple perspectives and gain the right vantage point to find the best path forward.
Charlie Munger coined the term “latticework” of mental models—which is exactly what you’re aiming for. The models you pick up should be intertwined with one another, as well as with your personal and vicarious experience. The more connections, the faster you’ll be able to navigate the latticework of your mind and the stronger your product intuition.
If you want a more actionable plan to hone these skills, here’s a list of deep-dive articles that I’ve written to get you started:
The last piece—and perhaps the most important—in developing strong product intuition is that you must love product management or it’s going to be an uphill battle you’ll likely never win. Improving your intuition and judgment takes a lifetime of sustained effort. Endurance matters. Results happen over the course of years, not months or days. The motivation has to be there to stick it out.
If product isn’t your thing and you’re not uniquely suited for a career in this space, it will be a struggle. As Naval Ravikant points out, “If you’re not 100 percent into it, somebody else who is 100 percent into it will outperform you. And they won’t just outperform you by a little bit—they’ll outperform you by a lot.” This mindset applies equally to both your career and intuition in your field.
In the world of product, there’s a tendency to overanalyze on one side and shoot from the hip on the other. You want to position yourself near the golden mean. Proper discovery matters, so you can refine your ideas and validate your riskiest assumptions to ensure the problem is worth solving. But intuition matters just as much.
The speed and accuracy of your decision-making have a direct impact on the success of your product. If you’re able to make better decisions, faster, you improve your odds. You won’t always have months to complete an intensive discovery process, especially at startups where resources are limited and there’s nowhere to hide.
Strong product intuition can be the difference between driving business results and achieving product market fit before careening past the end of your runway or sacrificing your competitive advantage. If you want to realize the vision for your product, achieve meaningful impact, and set yourself apart in the process, hone your intuition.